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Two days remaining.

The English side's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

Drawing on analysis from CricViz, we look at where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are even planning to turn up.

A lot of the pre-series discussion has centred around the perceived challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the opening match on a Perth pitch described as a "green monster".

When it comes to batting in Australia, particularly against fast bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: pitches and cricket balls.

Overall, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, highest bouncing and among the most inconsistent in the world.

Speed and variable bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket describes the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to increased seam movement.

Seam bowling is a much bigger weapon than swing in Australian conditions.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about solving problems.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the deciding factor, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the chance to be the key factor between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have toured Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring injury.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have seldom needed alternatives because of the success and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have needed a back-up, Scott Boland has been sensational, taking 62 wickets in 14 Tests at an average below 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home Test without both key bowlers, and were defeated, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Remember when England could not find an opening batsman to partner Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were united at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the initial delivery of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the game for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

Following Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has batted with five various openers in 15 matches.

Uncapped Jake Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was shifted to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has brought him back, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have performed worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, all 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, appearing out of touch after a broken finger, while Will Jacks is primarily a batter.

It would seem logical for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It is reducing Lyon's time with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Lyon was bowling 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against India, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was introduced, meaning Lyon has fewer opportunities to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a unfortunate tendency of being beaten in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has set off.

Traditionally, the series began in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a weakened Australia in 1978.

On this tour, the initial three venues on the tour are the same, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It is still a difficult task, though one the tourists approach with no past burdens.

Brisbane is the location for the second match, the day-nighter.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by West Indies.

Likewise, the Aussies are now not used to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a new opportunity at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four of the five Tests played at the new Perth ground, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

England often overthink day-night matches, when statistics suggest the pink ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

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